ALARMIST MEA CULPA:
Many thanks to long-time Bloggelini Gail for asking me where I got the statistic that one could catch the Delta variant in FIVE seconds. I had heard it from someone (can't remember who) and read it somewhere (can't remember where). I should not have repeated such extremely disturbing information without checking my sources. My deepest apologies.
So I went in search of this information that I had read somewhere, about the five-second transmission. I did find it. It wasn't easy, though, because all of the bigly official sites do NOT talk about how long you need to be exposed to be infected by the Delta variant. I think this is probably because they don't really have enough data yet. And as I look back to the pandemic's beginning, it was a while before they came up with the 15-minute exposure figure for the original COVID.
Anyhow, yes, there is one documented case in Sydney, Australia where one man caught Delta COVID from another just by walking past him. Read about it here. But here's what David Dowdy, associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health has to say about that:
- “The challenge is that, of course, the amount of an exposure that’s required to cause an infection is always going to vary. It’s always going to be possible for a very fleeting exposure to cause an infection. But it’s always going to be much, much more likely for a very intense exposure to cause an infection. It’s the same thing as saying, ‘Can you get the flu from passing someone on the street and they sneeze? Yes, of course you can.’ But how many people do you pass on the street, and how often do you get the flu from them, versus if your child gets the flu [and infects you]?”
So there is no authoritative site that has info on how long an exposure it takes to be infected. I hope, if my 5-second statistic made you anxious, you can relax now. Or at least you can exchange the 5-second Delta worry for worrying about flu from a random sneeze on the street!
The thing is, because the situation keeps changing, we're back in the position of not really knowing much about the enemy. And, as Dr. Dowdy makes clear, in the real physical world, there are no rigid statistics on how long it takes to pass a virus from one person to another. There are too many variables. Maybe the Australian man who received the virus in passing was extra-vulnerable because .... because he was just about to die anyway! AND he couldn't function well without coffee and he hadn't had his morning dose of caffeine yet! You see? There are all kinds of comforting ways to look at the situation.
Am I just digging the hole deeper?
TWO GOOD LINKS:
I think we need to read more so we can have a deeper understanding of our situation.
FIRST LINK IS ABOUT THE VACCINE:
If you don't want to click, here's a summary of two interesting points in the article:
First Interesting Point: Many people are freaked out when they hear that the immunity that the COVID vaccines provide fades over time. They worry that this is a failure of these particular vaccines. But it turns out that ALL vaccine-acquired immunities fade away:
- "This isn't a glitch," said Dr. Monica Gandhi, professor of medicine and associate division chief of the Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine at University of California San Francisco. "This is how the immune system is designed," she explained. "It's normal for immunoglobulins to reduce over time." She said our blood and our noses can't hold all of the antibodies they've ever produced; if antibody levels didn't drop, "our blood would be thick as paste."
So if you've got to get a booster eventually --- No biggee. That's the price you pay to not have those childhood vaccines lying around and cluttering up your blood, making it all pasty. Who wants pasty blood? Not I!
Second Interesting Point:
- Dr. Carlos Del Rio, distinguished professor of medicine in Infectious Diseases at Emory University School of Medicine noted that the vaccines were specifically designed to protect against severe disease and death, and that's what those big vaccine trials looked for. "Infection was never an end-point in these studies," he said. That the vaccines were later found to prevent infection, he said "was a little bit ... like the cherry on the cake."
The vaccines were designed to affect the LUNGS, where the disease develops, not the NOSE, where the disease enters. It's much more difficult to design vaccines to affect your nose. Somehow I can grasp that intuitively. So... if you're a vaxee who got infected and didn't need to be hospitalized, you didn't get the cherry on top, but you still got the cake!
Let's face it:
The vaccines are a great big fat
MIRACLE!
And it is so tragic that the power of the miracle is being shredded by partisan politics here and in other countries. It's also tragic that the miracle isn't being spread around the world as quickly as possible.
SECOND LINK TO REMIND US OF WHAT WE CAN DO TO PROTECT OURSELVES:
WHO has a series of five-minute videos about the pandemic on its website. Click here to watch this latest one which reiterates all the precautions we can take to avoid infection. It's worth going over. There was information I didn't know or that had slipped my mind. To summarize (if you don't want to watch the video): - Wear a mask. (yeah yeah yeah)
- Wash your hands when you put on or take off your mask. (I did not know this.)
- Avoid crowds.
- Keep your distance from others. (I guess we gotta return to the six-foot gap. Damn.)
- Maintain good ventilation. (Open a window! Open two! Three!)
Well, at least they're not telling us to spray all surfaces hourly with alcohol! And there's nothing about wearing those dreadful hot gloves to put away the groceries! Count your blessings.
Bloggelinis, dear dear Bloggelinis: Who could have imagined we'd still be... Well, I always say "Nobody knows the future." But I did "know" that the pandemic would not last this long. Oh well. We can still stop and smell the roses, as I did before I took that photo. But when you smell that rose, be sure there's no one within six feet, take your mask down BRIEFLY for a sniff and then put it back up, and remember, it's even safer if you wait for a stiff breeze! AND if the rose has no smell, don't panic. Lots of roses don't. Terry
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